MANILA, Philippines – BINAGO ng economic managers ng administrasyon ang ilan sa kanilang macroeconomic assumptions kung saan pinaliit nito ang saklaw para sa piso at inflation.
Inaasahan ngayon ng interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) na ang piso ay maipapalit sa pagitan ng 54 at 57 laban sa US dollar ngayong taon,
“With the lower end of this range weaker than the 53-to-the-dollar foreign exchange assumption of the DBCC during its April review,” ayon sa ulat.
Hindi naman maipaliwanag ng economic team kung bakit pinalitan nito ang forex forecast, subalit sinabi ni central bank governor Felipe Medalla na ang ‘wider interest rate differentials” sa pagitan ng US Federal Reserve at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) policy rates ay maaaring mag- exert ng presyur sa piso.
“Dollar-denominated assets tend to be more attractive to investors seeking higher-yielding investments with lower risk,” ayon sa ulat.
“With investors uncertain whether US interest rates will further rise or stay where they are, that leaves peso-denominated assets paying a lower premium and consequently, hurting the Philippine currency,” ayon pa rin sa ulat.
Ang sinabi lamang ng DBCC, ang piso ay makapagbibigay lakas ng hanggang P53 laban sa ‘greenback’ sa 2024 hanggang 2028.
Ang peso-dollar exchange rate ay P56.05 sa spot currency market nang magsara ang kalakalan, araw ng Biyernes.
Samantala, muling ni-recast ng economic managers ang kanilang inflation forecast sa isang narrower band na 5%-6% ngayong taon mula sa nakalipas na assumption range na 5%-7% dahil na rin sa pagpapagaan sa inflation readings sa nakalipas na apat na buwan.
Ang official target ng Bangko Sentral ngayong taon ay 2% hanggang 4%.
Ang growth target para sa taong 2023 ay nananatili sa 6% hanggang 7% range.
“The reason we kept the target… We do recognize the effect of the external environment. On the other hand, the performance of the economy in the first quarter is much more improved than what most of us anticipated,” ayon kay National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Arsenio Balisacan.
“We have taken into account the El Niño although the impact won’t be as bad. Overall, putting all these factors together, we believe 6% to 7% is very much manageable,” dagdag na wika nito.
“Goods exports and imports growth projections for this year were revised downwards to 1% and 2% from 3% and 4%, respectively, following the trend in near-term global demand outlook and trade prospects,” ayon sa ulat. Kris Jose
