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Inflation posibleng manatili sa 2.6% ngayong Disyembre

MANILA, Philippines – Posibleng manatili sa 2.6 percent ngayong buwan ang headline inflation na pasok pa rin sa 2 percent hanggang 4 percent na target range ng pamahalaan.

“Inflation could remain relatively benign and still well within the BSP’s inflation target of 2 to 4 percent, largely due to lower rice prices, which account for 9 percent of the CPI (consumer price index) basket due to [a] lower tariff on imported rice,” pahayag ni Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort sa panayam ng Philippine News Agency nitong Miyerkules, Disyembre 25.

Matatandaan na bigas ang naging ‘significant driver’ ng inflation mula pa noong Setyembre 2023.

Para mapababa ang presyo ng bigas, pinirmahan at inisyu ni Pangulong Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ang Executive Order (EO) 62, series of 2024 sa Comprehensive Tariff Program 2024-2028 noong Hunyo 20

Ipinatupad noong Hulyo, sakop ng EO ang pagpapababa sa taripa ng imported na bigas mula 35 percent patungong 15 percent.

Hanggang noong Nobyembre, patuloy sa pagbaba ang rice inflation mula 22.5 percent noong Hunyo ay nagging 5.1 percent na lamang.

Bukod sa mababang presyo ng bigas, possible ring bumaba sa 2.5 month lows ang global crude oil prices.

“Other major global commodity prices are among the lowest in 3 to 4 years amid softer economic data in China, which is the world’s second-biggest economy and biggest importer of oil and other major global commodities,” ani Ricafort.

“This would help support relatively benign inflation in many countries around the world, at or near central bank inflation targets that could help justify future Fed rate cuts that could be matched locally.”

Sa kabila nito, ang seasonal increase sa demand at paggastos ngayong holiday season ay maaari ring magresulta sa pagtaas ng presyo ng mga bilihin.

Ang December 2024 inflation data ay ilalabas ng Philippine Statistics Authority sa unang linggo ng Enero.

“For the coming months, it is possible for inflation to sustain at 2 percent levels up to early 2025, or well within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ inflation target range of 2 to 4 percent,” ayon kay Ricafort. RNT/JGC