MANILA, Philippines – Nabuo ang “short-lived” La Niña phenomenon sa tropical Pacific na magtatagal hanggang sa unang quarter ng 2026, ayon sa PAGASA.
“Recent oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that La Niña has developed in the tropical Pacific,” saad sa advisory ng ahensya.
“Since September 2025, the sea surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific started to decrease and further declined in November, reaching a weak La Niña threshold. Based on the latest forecast, La Niña is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2026,” dagdag pa.
Ayon sa PAGASA, ang weak La Niña conditions ay nabubuo kapag ang one-month sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) ng -0.5°C o mas mababa pa ay naitala at ang expectation na ang three-month SSTA (Oceanic Niño Index) ng -0.5°C o mas mababa pa ay maaabot.
“It is likely that this La Niña will continue at least until the December 2025 to February 2026 season as suggested by several climate models.”
Ang La Niña ay mayroong above-normal rainfall conditions sa halos malaking bahagi ng bansa sa huling quarter ng taon o mga unang buwan ng susunod na taon.
Dahil dito ay may mas mataas na tsansa ng above-normal rainfall ngayong Disyembre hanggang sa Pebrero 2026 na maaaring magdala ng mga pagbaha, at landslide.
Posible rin anila ang malaking tsansa ng tropical cyclone activity sa Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) sa nasabing panahon. RNT/JGC
