MANILA, Philippines – Walang inaasahang “destabilization” ang Armed Forces of the Philippines kahit tumagal o magkaroon ng hindi inaasahang pangyayari sa impeachment trial ni Vice President Sara Duterte sa Senado, ayon kay AFP spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad nitong Huwebes.
Sa isang forum, sinabi ni Trinidad na nirerespeto ng AFP ang political process ngunit nananatili itong nakatuon sa mas malawak nitong mandato sa seguridad.
“Walang mangyayari. We have been through different rallies, mass protest actions. We have been through different incidents, investigations, flood control, etcetera. The AFP respects this political process,” pahayag ni Trinidad.
“It’s a different branch of government. We support them. We respect them. The instability is in the political side– ‘yung bangayan, ‘yung kuwentuhan, ‘yung awayan. The AFP has taken a step back, and we have a bigger mandate to perform. We look at the overall security picture, which today, is external in nature,” dagdag niya.
Samantala, sinabi ni data scientist at University of the Philippines professor Dr. Guido David na sa kaniyang pananaw, hindi pa gaanong nababago ng unang tatlong araw ng impeachment trial ang umiiral na political positions ng publiko.
“Although we don’t have data yet, my sense is ‘yung three days of the impeachment trial has not really changed much doon sa predisposed perceptions or ‘yung mga biases ng public. Meaning those who support the vice president still support the vice president and those who are in favor of the impeachment are still in favor of the impeachment. So I don’t think it has swayed any of those factions,” pahayag ni David.
“‘Yung mga independent voters and independent-minded Filipinos who are looking at this without biases, and we know there’s maybe 30 to 40 percent of them, I don’t think their position has been made yet regarding this kasi we’ve only seen, you know, I think one witness pa lang,” dagdag niya.
Binanggit din ni David ang isang survey na nagpapakitang tatlo sa bawat 10 Pilipino ang naniniwalang ibabatay ng mga senador ang kanilang desisyon sa political considerations, habang isa lamang sa bawat lima ang naniniwalang magiging evidence-based ang desisyon.
Dahil dito, at batay sa 16-vote conviction threshold na binanggit ni presiding senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero, sinabi ni David na maaaring mauwi sa acquittal ang impeachment trial, bagama’t nilinaw niyang hindi ito prediction.
“If it’s political, I’m a data scientist so if we’re counting the number of senators who will vote for acquittal and based on the presiding senator Chiz Escudero’s statement na they will need 16 votes to impeach the vice president, based on that, my sense is it will be acquittal. But it’s not a prediction… It can change. A lot of things can happen,” ani David.
Batay sa pre-trial survey ng OCTA Research noong Abril, 32 percent ng mga Pilipino ang hindi naniniwalang uunahin ng karamihan sa mga senador ang ebidensiya kaysa political considerations sa pagdedesisyon sa impeachment case.
Sinabi rin ni David na posibleng may ilang senator-judges na nakapagdesisyon na, at hindi sila dapat ma-pressure ng public opinion.
“My sense is ‘yung mga ibang senator-judges, they have already made up their mind kung ano ‘yung decision nila. And that’s why I’m basing it on that. But some of them, possibly, can still change their minds… I don’t think they will be pressured per se by public opinion. And besides, they should not be pressured by public opinion,” pahayag niya.
Batay naman sa social listening, sinabi ni David na si Escudero ang pinakanakinabang sa public perception sa unang tatlong araw ng impeachment trial.
“One person who has gotten a boost in public perception here is si Senator Chiz Escudero. And we’re monitoring the sentiments, social listening. I won’t say he has redeemed himself from what’s happened in the past, but he’s definitely gotten a boost from the past three days,” ani David.
Dagdag pa ni David, mas mabigat pa rin sa publiko ang isyu ng flood control corruption kaysa impeachment proceedings laban sa Pangalawang Pangulo, bagama’t pansamantala itong natabunan ng paglilitis.
“Not based on survey pero based on our social listening, mas matimbang ‘yung flood control scandal. Although siyempre, recently that has taken a back seat to impeachment,” pahayag ni David.
“Rainy season na naman so ‘yung flood control, hindi natin makakalimutan. Every time na uulan at may bumaha, maaalala natin ‘yan. So I don’t think that will be forgotten,” dagdag niya.
Noong Abril, sinabi ni Ombudsman Jesus Crispin Remulla na naghahanda sila ng plunder complaints laban kay Escudero kaugnay ng flood control issue. Dave Baluyot
