MANILA, Philippines – MAY epekto subalit ‘hypothetical at manageable’ ang planong “zero remittance week” ng mga overseas supporters ni dating Pangulong Rodrigo Roa Duterte.
Kumbinsido ang mga ekonomista na made-delay lamang ito at dadagsa sa susunod na buwan.
Para kay Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) lead economist Emilio Neri Jr., ang plano ng ilang overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) na itigil ang pagpapadala ng pera sa Pilipinas mula March 28 hanggang April 4 ay nananatiling “very big if,” at depende kung makakaya ng mga overseas Filipino na hindi magpadala ng pera sa kanilang mga mahal sa buhay.
“Assuming na kaya nila talagang gawin ‘yun, na ma-afford nila na hindi mapadalan ‘yung relatives nila then that will clearly widen the current account position, negative position, and have some negative consequences on the exchange, on the reserves accumulation plan of the government, and it may actually affect interest rates,” ang sinabi pa rin ni Neri.
“Baka hindi makapag-cut [rates]) si BSP if the outflow or the inflow really dries up substantially. It can have a sizable effect on those factors I mentioned. Even growth can be dragged since it’s a major funder of household final consumption,” dagdag na wika nito.
Sinabing nagbanta kasi ang ilang grupo ng OFW sa Europa na hindi sila magpapadala ng pera sa Pilipinas mula March 28 hanggang April 4, 2025.
Ang zero remittance week ay protesta umano sa ginawang pag-aresto kay Duterte, na nakadetine ngayon sa The Hague upang litisin sa International Criminal Court (ICC) sa bintang na crime against humanity.
Ang naturang bintang ay bunsod ng ipinatupad na kampanya ni Duterte laban sa ilegal na droga na libu-libo ang namatay, na nagkaroon umano ng mga paglabag sa karapatang pantao at may nadamay na mga inosente.
Ayon kay Neri, “zero remittance could push the peso to fresh record lows of up to P62:$1, and force the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to postpone any rate cuts and maybe even hike policy rates later this year, “but this is a big if. It’s a very big if.”
“I don’t know who the spokesperson or who was it that made a statement on whether it is really representative of our overseas Filipinos. Again, if you look at the number, a lot of them still come from the US and the Middle East, and we’re not sure whether these people who aired the statement fairly or adequately represent our overseas Filipinos,” aniya pa rin.
Sa kabilang dako, makikita sa pinakabagong data na available mula sa BSP na ang cash remittances o money transfers sa pamamagitan ng mga bangko o formal channels ay nananatili sa $2.918 billion, bumaba mula sa $3.380 billion noong December 2024, subalit mas mataas kaysa sa $2.836 billion noong January 2024.
“The US accounted for 41.2%, followed by Singapore with 7.5%, Saudi Arabia with 6.6%, Japan with 5.7%, the United Kingdom with 4.7%, the UAE with 3.5%, Canada with 3.1%, Taiwan and Qatar with 2.8% each, and Malaysia with 2.4%, while other countries accounted for the remaining 19.7%,” ayon sa ulat.
“Forecasting a 3% growth in remittances this year to about $35.5 billion, BPI’s Marco Javier said zero remittances — assuming that there are no inflows at all — would translate to around $97.3 million per day,” ayon pa rin sa ulat.
“It can be a bit substantial, but trying to convince people, especially those that have amortizations for their housing loan, their can loan, and of course also the tuition for their kids to stop, might be a bit hard to convince. Your credit standing might be put at risk,” ang sinabi naman ni Neri.
“We did see that predominantly US and Middle East ang ating mga (are our) sources, so we will see if they are able to convince that side of the fence to stop,” dagdag na pahayag nito. Kris Jose
