IN the late 1990s, I conducted a nationwide survey for my master’s thesis on
transformational leadership. My goal was ambitious: to identify the respondents to my
study through a survey conducted across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, adhering to
strict research standards such as sample size and margin of error. My ultimate aim was
to identify the top 15 Filipino leaders based on public perception and study whether or
not their leadership is transformational. However, while this diligence and hard work
paid off when I graduated with highest honors, a remark from the late Senator Arturo
Tolentino, who was supposed to be one of my respondents, stuck with me—he said he
did not believe in surveys, therefore, he declined to take part in the study.
Poll surveys have become integral to elections and public opinion research, both locally
and internationally. In the Philippines, organizations like Social Weather Stations
and Pulse Asia regularly release pre-election surveys. These surveys aim to gauge
voter preferences and predict electoral outcomes, though questions surrounding their
reliability persist.
I admit that I, along with perhaps the majority of the Filipino electorate, rely heavily on
poll survey results when assessing which candidates are winning the race. These
results often become powerful tools that can condition and influence voter behavior.
Candidates leading in the polls tend to attract more attention and resources, while those
trailing might find themselves in a more challenging position. Polls, therefore, have the
capacity to shape the outcome of elections.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was often skeptical of poll results,
especially when they were unfavorable to his administration. At times, he dismissed
surveys as unreflective of the true sentiments of the people. However, he embraced
polls that showed high approval ratings for his governance. This ambivalent relationship
with polls is common among political figures, as the results can significantly influence
public perception
In contrast, former President Noynoy Aquino believed in the reliability of polls. During
his 2010 presidential campaign, he acknowledged that surveys showing his growing
popularity served as motivators for his supporters. His eventual election victory mirrored
the pre-election poll results, reinforcing his confidence in the method. Similarly, former
U.S. President Barack Obama trusted poll surveys, relying on both internal and public
polls to guide his campaign strategies. In both the 2008 and 2012 U.S. elections, poll
predictions closely matched the final outcomes.
